Climate Variability and Rice Production Vulnerability in Coastal Bangladesh: A District-level Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

Rice is a primary staple crop and a key contributor to food security in Bangladesh; however, rice production in coastal regions is increasingly threatened by climate variability, particularly fluctuations in temperature and precipitation. Despite growing concern, district-level analyses linking climatic factors with rice production in coastal Bangladesh remain limited. This study therefore examines the influence of major climatic parameters on rice production across 19 coastal districts using data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) covering 2006-2020. Descriptive statistics were used to assess production trends, while unit root tests and fixed and random effects (FE/RE) panel data regression were applied to evaluate the relationship between climatic variables and rice production. The results reveal clear spatial variation in seasonal rice cultivation, with Aus predominating in Chattogram, Aman in Jessore, and Boro in Bhola districts. Climate-yield relationships were found to be complex: moderate temperature increases supported Aus and Aman production by accelerating crop growth, whereas excessive heat during critical growth stages reduced yields. Increased rainfall and cultivated land availability were positively associated with production across all major rice seasons. The findings emphasize the importance of adaptive strategies, including improved water management and stress-tolerant cultivation practices, to reduce climate-related risks. Policy recommendations include promoting climate-resilient rice varieties, targeted water management, and extension services to strengthen coastal food security under changing climatic conditions.