Growth and Trend Analysis of Area, Production, and Productivity of Fennel (Foeniculum vulgare Mill.) in India

Abstract

Fennel (Foeniculum vulgare Mill.) has demonstrated remarkable commercial potential across diverse industries. It has been widely recognized for its rich phytochemical composition, including essential oils, flavonoids, phenolic compounds, and dietary fiber. This study aimed to estimate the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and analyze linear trends in area, production, and productivity of fennel (Foeniculum vulgare Mill.) cultivation in India over a 30-year period. A quantitative, descriptive research study based on secondary time-series data employing linear trend analysis and CAGR computation. The study covered fennel cultivation across India, with particular reference to leading producer states — Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh — spanning the period from 1994–95 to 2023–24. Secondary time-series data (N = 30) were sourced from Indiastat, the Department of Agriculture (Rajasthan), and the Board of Revenue (Rajasthan). Three parameters — area (thousand hectares), production (thousand MT), and productivity (MT/hectare) — were analyzed using semi-log regression (linear trend analysis Y=a+bX) and CAGR, computed as CAGR = \((\frac{V_f}{V_i})^{\frac{1}{n}}-1\) The average area, production, and productivity were 59.62 thousand hectares, 90.79 thousand MT, and 1.41 MT/hectare, respectively. Area grew at a CAGR of 6.89% (R² = 0.78), production at 8.73% (R² = 0.84), and productivity at 1.69% (R² = 0.68). Production exhibited the highest variability (CV = 0.78), while productivity remained relatively stable (CV = 0.17). A notable production surge was recorded in 2023–24, reaching 376.05 thousand MT over an area of 216.02 thousand hectares. Fennel cultivation in India demonstrated a consistent and statistically significant positive growth trajectory across all three dimensions over the 30-year study period. The production growth rate surpassing both area and productivity growth rates individually indicates a combined effect of increased land allocation and improved farming efficiency. The unprecedented 2023–24 surge warrants further investigation into its contributing factors and long-term sustainability.