Forecasting Oil Consumption with Novel Fractional Grey Prediction Model Based on Simpson Formula

Abstract

With the development of human society, the evolving transition of energy will become a common challenge that mankind has to face together. In this context, it is crucial to make scientific and reasonable predictions about energy consumption. This paper presents a novel fractional grey prediction model FGM(1,1,k2) based on the classical fractional grey system theory. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the FGM(1,1,k2) model, we further analyze the model error and propose improved grey model called as SFGM with optimization of background value. The numerical cases point out that SFGM(1,1,k2) significantly outperforms other existing fractional grey models. Finally, the proposed SFGM(1,1,k2) is applied to the forecasting of oil consumption, the predicted results would provide a reference for making energy policy in new situations.