Intra-Regional Trade Potential: An Analysis of the Ecowas Zone

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate and analyse the potential of intra-regional trade in the ECOWAS zone. Given the unavailability of data for some countries, only data from 10 countries could be collected over the period 2001-2019. The methodology we used is based essentially on the gravity model, a model whose use in international trade is widely justified with solid theoretical foundations.  The method for calculating countries' trade potential is inspired by the work of Ghazi, T. and Msadfa, Y. (2016). The results obtained show that Nigeria and Côte d'Ivoire top the ranking, respectively 1st and 2nd, of countries whose trade potential is best exploited. In 2001, Ghana ranked 4th and Senegal 3rd, but in the years since, Ghana has improved its position and Senegal has regressed. Countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger saw their trade potential increase between 2001 and 2019. In contrast, countries such as Guinea and Benin regressed over this period. These results call on the authorities to encourage the relevant economic policies taken for countries that have seen an improvement in their trade potential. On the other hand, countries with slow or low levels of progress need to be supported by effective development programs to improve their position.