Employment Effects of The 40% Cassava-Wheat Bread Policy in Nigeria; the Smallholder Model

Abstract

Aims: The rate of unemployment in Nigeria was 23.9% in 2012. Unemployment is linked to youth restiveness and crime all over the world. In Nigeria, ethnic militias who are mostly youths are threatening the oil and gas industry in the Niger Delta (southern Nigeria), while Islamic militants are threatening agriculture in the north. The government wants to boost employment and wealth creation in Nigeria using the 40% cassava flour inclusion in bread policy, because cassava is locally grown. The employment effects of the cassava bread policy have not been quantified. The aim of this study is to estimate the employment effects of the 40% cassava bread policy. Methodology: The study utilized secondary data for the estimation of employment effects of cassava bread policy in Nigeria. Results: Implementation of the policy could create a demand of 1.3 million tonnes of high quality cassava flour (HQCF), which will require about 5.2 million MT of cassava, which has potential local employment effects. Results show that implementation of the policy could create employment for 260,000 persons in the cassava farming enterprise, 43,333 persons for cassava processing to HQCF, and 3,350 persons for equipment manufacturing. Applying the multiplier effect of 2, the implementation of 40% cassava bread policy could create direct employment of over 613 thousand persons excluding transportation and bread improver’s value chains. Conclusion: The study shows that several people could be employment in the 40% cassava flour inclusion in bread policy.