India’s Basmati Rice Export Forecasting and Performance: ARIMA Model

Abstract

Rice is the stable food in India and also in many countries of Asian continent. Indian rice is having higher demand in international market, so the Basmati and non-Basmati rice contributing a very high national income through export. The export performance and forecasting of basmati rice was carried out by using CAGR, Instability Index and ARIMA model. This study tried to understand the per cent share of rice export from the total agricultural export, growth rate from 1987 to 2022. Only secondary data was used for this study and the data was collected from APEDA. The study found that, the total export share of rice to the total agricultural export was 55.20 per cent in terms of quantity and 42.68 per cent in terms of value during the period 2020-21. This paper also predicted the next 5 years Basmati rice export from India using SPSS software. The CAGR was used to find the growth rate and it was found that 10.31 per cent and 17.37 per cent of growth with respect to quantity and value of export. The study concluded that positive growth rate of basmati and non-basmati rice was noticed in terms of quantity as well as in terms of value with higher instability. The study showed that higher instability within exports of non-Basmati rice as compared to Basmati rice during the study period. The forecasting of basmati rice exports showed increasing trends in exports over the years.