Warming Effect Reanalysis of Greenhouse Gases and Clouds

Abstract

The author has reanalysed the warming effects of greenhouse (GH) gases utilising the latest HITRAN 2012 database and improved water continuum calculations in the spectral analysis tool. The contributions of GH gases in the GH effect in the all-sky conditions are found to be: H2O 81%, CO2 13%, O3 4%, CH4 & N2O 1%, and clouds 1%. Because the total absorption is already 93% from the maximum in the altitude of 1.6 km, which is the average global cloud base, the GH gas impacts are almost the same in the clear and all-sky conditions. The impacts of clouds are based on the normal cloudiness changes between the clear and cloudy skies. The positive impact of clouds is analysed and it is based on the warming impact of clouds during the night-time. The warming impact of CO2 is very nonlinear and it means that in the present climate the strength of H2O is 11.8 times stronger than CO2, when in the total GH effect this relationship is 6.2:1. The atmospheric Total Precipitable Water (TPW) changes during ENSO events are the essential parts of the ENSO process and they are not actually separate feedback processes. The TPW changes during the ENSO events almost double the original ENSO effects. On the other hand, during Mt. Pinatubo eruption and during the three latest solar cycles, the long-term water feedback effect cannot be found despite of rapid warming from 1980 to 2000. This empirical result confirms that the assumption of no water feedback in calculating the climate sensitivity of 0.6°C is justified. Because there is no long-term positive feedback, it explains why the IPCC model calculated temperature 1.2°C in 2015 is 44 % greater than the average 0.85ºC of the pause period since 2000.