Context-specific Strategies for Mitigating the Impact of Climate Variability on Socioeconomic Vulnerability in Informal Settlements

Abstract

Urban informal settlements remain highly vulnerable to climate variability, experiencing recurrent flooding, prolonged droughts, and increasing heat stress. In Nairobi County, the settlements of Korogocho and Kahawa Soweto exemplify these challenges, where poverty, low levels of education, inadequate housing, and limited access to essential services intensify household vulnerability. This study assessed the influence of climate variability on socioeconomic vulnerability in these settlements and identified context-specific mitigation strategies.A mixed-methods research design was employed, incorporating household questionnaires (n = 200), key informant interviews (n = 20), six focus group discussions, direct field observations, and a review of relevant literature. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and logistic regression, while qualitative data were analyzed through thematic coding. The results indicate that 68% of households earned low incomes (below $100 per month), 54% had limited formal education, and 62% lacked adequate access to water and sanitation services. Additionally, 70% of housing structures were temporary and highly susceptible to flooding, while 45% of households reported previous losses in income or agricultural production due to extreme weather events. Logistic regression analysis showed that low income (OR = 2.5, 95% CI: 1.6–3.9, p < 0.01), poor housing quality (OR = 3.1, 95% CI: 1.9–5.0, p < 0.001), and low educational attainment (OR = 1.8, 95% CI: 1.1–2.9, p = 0.02) were significant predictors of increased vulnerability. Households primarily relied on social networks as a coping mechanism. Key mitigation strategies identified include community-based initiatives, infrastructure upgrading, early warning systems, and participatory planning approaches. The study concludes that there is an urgent need for locally tailored, community-driven interventions to reduce climate-related socioeconomic vulnerability in informal urban settlements. It recommends a multi-stakeholder approach involving county government, community organizations, and development partners to co-design adaptation programs. Furthermore, participatory planning frameworks should be institutionalized to ensure community involvement, and climate adaptation policies should be integrated into urban development planning to prioritize informal settlements in resilience financing and infrastructure investment.