Modeling the Global Public Health Determinants of HIV/AIDS-Related Deaths

Abstract

The alarming global incidence of HIV/AIDS epidemic prompted this research undertaking to explore several health indicators that lead to and mediate reported HIV/AIDS mortality. A number of studies attempted to explore and give light to the epidemic incidence, however, the understanding of the causality issue at the policy level is still immature. To address this issue, this paper took into account a number of health indicators linked to HIV/AIDS prognosis and explore its direct and mediating effect to the global mortality prevalence. In particular, utilizing the panel data gathered from World Health Organization (WHO) and World Bank data repository, this paper modeled the determinants of global HIV/AIDS mortality. Goodness-of-fit statistics revealed a satisfactory model fitting indices (χ2=12.711,>0.05, NFI=.966, CFI=.989, RMSEA=.064, SRMR =.044, and HOELTER=225 and 326 at 0.05 & 0.01, respectively). Furthermore, this paper developed a structural equations model to investigate quantitatively the interrelationships among identified exogenous variables and its effect on worldwide HIV/AIDS mortality. Three health indicators were identified to have indirect effect while two indicators have a direct effect on HIV/AIDS mortality. Further complicated dismantling and constructive designs are described based on the empirical findings of this paper. Mediation analysis for the final outcome is also outlined.