Modeling Climate Change Projections for Ferozpur Sub-catchment of Jhelum Sub-basin of Kashmir Valley

Abstract

Aims: The study aimed at modeling the climate change projections for Ferozpur subcatchment of Jhelum sub-basin of Kashmir Valley using the SDSM model. Study Design: The study was carried out in three different time slices viz Baseline (1985-2015), Mid-century (2030-2059) and End-century (2070-2099). Place and Duration of Study: Division of Agricultural Engineering, SKUAST-K, Shalimar between August 2015 and July 2016. Methodology: Statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was applied in downscaling weather files (Tmax, Tminand precipitation). The study includes the calibration of the SDSM model by using Observed daily climate data (Tmax, Tmin and precipitation) of thirty one years and large scale atmospheric variables encompassing National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, the validation of the model, and the outputs of downscaled scenario A2 of the Global Climate Model (GCM) data of Hadley Centre Coupled Model, Version 3 (HadCM3) model for the future. Daily Climate (Tmax, Tmin and precipitation) scenarios were generated from 1961 to 2099 under A2 defined by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Results: The results showed that temperature and precipitation would increase by 0.29°C, 255.38 mm (30.97%) in MC (Mid-century) (2030-2059); and 0.67oC and 233.28 mm (28.29%) during EC (End-century) (2070-2099), respectively. Conclusion: The climate projections for 21st century under A2 scenario indicated that both mean annual temperature and precipitation are showing an increasing trend.