Evaluating the Impact of Security Challenges and Climate Variability on Agricultural Development for Food Sustainability: A Case Study of Benue State, Nigeria

Abstract

Benue State; often referred to as Nigeria’s "food basket" is increasingly threatened by the dual crises of escalating insecurity and climate variability, jeopardizing its vital role in national food supply. Despite its agricultural potential, recurrent farmer–herder conflicts, banditry, and environmental instability have severely constrained productivity, yet few studies have examined their combined effects within this strategic region. This study aimed to evaluate the synergistic impact of security challenges and climate fluctuations on agricultural development and food sustainability in Benue State, Nigeria. Using a mixed-methods approach, data were collected from 412 farmers, 24 security personnel, and 16 climate experts through structured questionnaires, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews, alongside 15 years of meteorological and agricultural production records. Quantitative analysis showed that insecurity reduced arable land utilization by 38% and disrupted cultivation cycles for over 60% of respondents, while climatic anomalies; including erratic rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and extreme flooding were linked to yield declines of up to 45% for staple crops. The combined effects intensified rural poverty, deepened food insecurity, and increased migration pressures. These findings highlight the urgency of integrated policy interventions that pair conflict resolution with climate-smart agriculture, supported by strengthened institutional frameworks, to safeguard Benue State’s agricultural resilience and national food security.