The Export Trends and Market Potential of Gujarat's Dairy Industry

Abstract

Gujarat's dairy industry, established in 1940, is a vital pillar of India's agricultural economy, strengthened by a strong cooperative model, with Amul serving as a prime example. Despite challenges such as trade regulations, quality standards and fluctuating global demand, the state is still a major dairy exporter. A detailed study examined Gujarat's dairy export performance over a 20-year period (2005-2025), using secondary data from the Director General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) and the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA). The study employs Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and Markov chain-based transition probability matrices to forecast Gujarat’s dairy export volumes across key global markets for the period 2026–2028. The study found an alarming rise in dairy exports in all importing regions, with North America, East Asia (Oceania), East Africa and West Africa as key markets with the highest positive growth rate since 2005. Furthermore, NE Asia, West Africa and North America showed strong export retention capacities, indicating stable demand in these regions. Forecasts for 2026-2028 predict continued growth in exports to West Asia-GCC, East Asia (Oceania), Northeast Asia, South Asia and North America. ASEAN, on the other hand, is expected to experience a slow downturn, whereas West Africa is expected to decline and East Africa would fluctuate. These trends highlight the dynamic nature of Gujarat's trade movements, emphasizing the critical need for strategic initiatives to improve trade resilience and market reach.