Climate Change and Trend Analysis of 24-Hourly Annual Maximum Series Using Mann-Kendall and Sen Slope Methods for Rainfall IDF Modeling
Masi G. Sam, Ify L. Nwaogazie, Chiedozie Ikebude
International Journal of Environment and Climate Change · pp. 44–60 · Published 2 Feb 2022
10.9734/ijecc/2022/v12i230628Abstract
The aim of this study is the establishment of the existence of trend and variability on a typical 24-hourly sorted thirty years (1986-2015) annual maximum series (AMS) and maximum monthly series (MMS) rainfall data for Uyo metropolis in Nigeria. Data were downscaled into shorter durations of 0.25, 0.5, …,12 hours. The statistical tool applied for the study was the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen Slope estimator. The results showed that there exists increasing trend for all durations analyzed with consistency in the test statistic results. The MK statistic lZl for the AMS varied between 3.1701 and 3.2827 while that of MMS was 4.756, were greater than critical Z = 1.96. Also, the computed p-value for the AMS varied between 0.0012 and 0.0015, and were lower than the significant level of alpha, = 0.05. Thus, the null hypothesis of no trend was rejected. Similarly, the Sen Slope estimator gave an average rate of change in rainfall as 2.1288 and 2.16 mm/year for AMS and MMS time series data, respectively. The result from the Sen Slope estimator indicated that the magnitude of the trend decreased as the duration of rainfall increased such that shorter duration exhibited more trend than higher duration. The results of the MK trend and Sen Slope analysis proved that both test exhibited high degree of consistency with statistically significant positive trend and variability. These results have provided further evidence of an accelerated alarming rate in climate change increasing trend in Uyo metropolis and perhaps the environs. Therefore, planning for effective and accurate rainfall prediction for annual maximum time series data with established variability in trend will require adoption of non-stationary concept to account for the influence of changing climatic parameters in intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) modeling.
Cited by 20
Rayees Ali, Haroon Sajjad, Tamal Kanti Saha · Acta Geophysica · 2024
Chimeme Ekwueme, Ify Nwaogazie, Chiedozie Ikebude · Hydrology · 2025
Moisés Damasceno Souza, Rivanildo Dallacort, Vanessa Rakel de Moraes Dias · Nativa · 2024
Fevziye Ayca Saracoglu, Yusuf Alperen Kaynar · Sustainability · 2025
Roshani, Haroon Sajjad, Tamal Kanti Saha · Acta Geophysica · 2022
Hamzah Faquseh, Giovanna Grossi · Sustainable Water Resources Management · 2024
Silvi Ariani, Mutya Vonnisa, Marzuki Marzuki · JURNAL ILMU FISIKA | UNIVERSITAS ANDALAS · 2024
Ibrar Ullah, Gabor Kovacs, Tibor Lenner · Earth Science Informatics · 2025
Yahaya Musa, Ibrahim Ahmad, Bilkisu Maijamaa · Lloyd Business Review · 2024
Carlos Henrique Alves Lapa, Claudia Guimarães Camargo Campos, Mario Francisco Leal de Quadro · Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física · 2024
Related research
- Response of California Summer Hydroelectricity Generation to Spring Temperature — shares topic coverage
- Comparing and Modifying Eight Empirical Models of Snowmelt Using Data from Harp Experimental Station in Central Ontario — shares topic coverage
- Characterizing and Monitoring Drought over Upper Blue Nile of Ethiopia with the Aid of Copula Analysis — shares topic coverage
- Influence of Climate Variation on Growth of Tropical Tree Species in Western Kenya — shares topic coverage
- Estimation of Water Balance of Oyan Lake in the North West Region of Abeokuta, Nigeria — shares topic coverage
Article metrics
Real usage data collected on this platform.
0
Page views
0
PDF downloads
0
Outbound clicks
20
Citations
Views by country
Approximate, from request IP at view time — not citizenship or institution. Countries with fewer than 5 views are grouped as "Other".
No views recorded yet.
Traffic sources
Referring site, by host.
No traffic recorded yet.
Views and downloads exclude known bots/crawlers. Citations combines this platform's own DOI-resolved index with each external source's own reported total — see Cited by above for individually listed citing works. Last refreshed 0 seconds ago.