Time Series Analysis of Climate Change, Drought and Food Security Nexus in Kaduna State Nigeria

Abstract

The tripartite interplay of drought, climate change and food security have for some time been investigated but the complexity of unfamiliar, local or regional climatic diversities have made it difficult to come to a universal understand of the trio. Kaduna state is located within the Sahelian part of Nigeria, a drought prone region making it a region of concern in view of devastating climate dynamics in recent times. The study examined the interplay of drought, climate change and food security and the resultant effects. The study employed the use of special datasets specifically and solely designed for effective monitoring of drought by the European Commission (EC) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Joint Research Centre (JRC). The research bodies developed the Software for Processing and Interpreting Remotely Sensed Image Time Series (SPIRITS), a standalone yet robust software for detecting and interpreting the dynamics of vegetation and climatic variables. Vegetation anomaly was evaluated and presented as absolute and standardized change images. High degree of vegetation anomalies was recorded mostly in decreasing manner of about 73 and 80 percent of the time and total area respectively with only 27 percent of the study area witnessing increasing vegetation occurring largely in the southern part of the state notably Sanga, Kaura, Jema’a, Zango Kataf, Chikun, Jere and Kachia LGAs. This results in consistent decrease in vegetation with a negative effect on food security. The study therefore recommends handsome reward for tree planting and adequate sanction for cutting down of trees. Wild fire early warning systems should be developed and implemented and the capacity of disaster early warning systems should be strengthened with adequate funding.