Hazard Control Technology for Situation Monitoring at Potentially Hazardous Facilities

Abstract

This article focuses on the actual problem of preventing accidents at potentially hazardous facilities. The technology for risk control at potentially hazardous facilities by the criterion of possible accident probability is proposed. Monitoring of situations is a necessary component of the technology. The technology is founded on the knowledge base created beforehand. Knowledge Base includes a prior formalized knowledge about situations that are possible on potentially hazardous facilities and the impact of these situations on the occurrence of undesirable elementary (basic) events. Each step of monitoring includes calculating the probability of an accident and hazard assessment. The new hazard estimation is calculated at each change of situation at potentially hazardous facilities. The probabilities of basic events are the necessary input data for predicting accidents. The focus of the paper is concentrated on the calculation of the probabilities of basic events. This calculation takes into account: the new situation, the actual time and wear made at the time of changing the situation, and content knowledge base. The contribution of the study: Special procedures are developed within the monitoring technology that form new predictable trajectories and the adjustment of the predictive interval boundaries for each situational change at potentially hazardous object according to the cumulative effect of hazard causal factors.