Methodology for Predicting Local Impacts of Sea Level Rise

Abstract

In the future, south Florida will be flush with water due to sea level rise and increased storm intensity, meaning there are three options to deal with this problem – retreat, offshore discharges or finding a use for the water. The first is not an option so the others must be evaluated. To do so, the first task needed to identify solutions to this problem is to define the severity of the problem through a vulnerability analysis so the appropriate decisions can be made. Aims: The objectives of this research were to develop an accurate methodology for predicting impacts of sea level rise and rainfall patterns at the local level by identifying how existing topographic, groundwater and tidal data sources can be utilized to identify infrastructure vulnerable to sea level rise and flooding. Study Design: Based on a study of monitoring well water levels on Miami Beach, it was noted that during the year, groundwater levels fluctuate due to tidal levels and rainfall, with the Fall king tides creating the highest vulnerability to infrastructure and property. Once vulnerability is defined a toolbox of options can be developed to deal with local issues. Results: The research found that the tides create a much larger vulnerability than current sea level rise analyses suggest and that the king tides drive the level of service for the community, while altering the dynamics of future stormwater planning efforts. To mitigate the impacts of flooding will require new ideas for dealing with excess waters. A toolbox of options was developed. Conclusion: One item that arose was that there is potential to use stormwater adaptation strategies to create future water supplies.