An Investigation into Social and Cultural Pressures of Vulnerable Women using Survival Analysis with Covariates

Abstract

In this study, we sought to model the time to the first birth interval from marriage for women in Nigeria, and identify the various factors affecting this timing. The study was also set to determine the average/median survival time for marriage to first birth interval among Nigerian women, to provide enlightenment in such areas and possibly reduce anxiety levels of women who have little or no knowledge of the median survival time to first birth who might be vulnerable to the exploitations of illicit religious and medical practitioners. Data obtained from the Nigerian Demographic Health Survey (NDHS) 2018 was used for the purpose of this research. Information on the following variables was obtained: Time to first birth from marriage, Age Women's education, Wealth index, Place of residence, Employment, Contraceptive, Religion, and Region. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to estimate the median survival time, while the log-rank test was used to test the significance of the categories of the covariates used. The Density, Quantile, Survival and Probability plots were used to study candidate distributions that appropriately describe the data, and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to select the best distribution for the Accelerated Failure Time Model. The study found that the median Survival time of marriage to the first birth interval was 20 months. Level of education, religion, region, use of contraceptives and Wealth Index were found to significantly affect marriage to the first birth interval. A log-normal Accelerated Failure Time Model was fit to the data. Women with higher education were found to have a shorter time to first birth interval. Also, women from South-Western Nigeria had shorter marriage to first birth interval than the other regions.