Budget Evaluation and Government Performance: A Case of the Nigerian Economy

Abstract

This paper evaluates Nigeria’s federal budget and its performance. The paper adopted the descriptive and analytical research method, using ex-post ‘facto’ data analysis of secondary data extracted from various budget documents, financial and economic reports of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. Budget variance analysis and construction of budget deviation indices were the tools of analysis used on one side; and augmented with regression analysis fiscal and economic performance variable in the last segment. The parameter for measuring budget credibility is the international threshold and prescribed limit for budget deficit / GDP, and also the minimum score of 50 percent score performance rating for regression of economic performance. The study reveal that Federal Government budget lacks credibility except in the case of fiscal solvency / discipline in the first stage .While in the second stage, it reveal that the federal budget performance is considered below average. The findings ranks Nigeria’s budget / fiscal performance as sub-optima but fairly satisfactory The study recommends that, Federal Government should prepare a gazette ‘Budget Performance Report’ that incorporates “Year-End Revised Approved Estimates with Comparison of Actual Fiscal Performance Report” within 90 days after the last day of every financial year as this will help improve the performance of budget performance in Nigeria.