Modelling Human Immunodeficiency Virus cum Tuberculosis Co-infection Dynamics in Kwande-Nigeria: An Econometrics Time Series Approach

Abstract

Aims: To model the dynamics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Tuberculosis (TB) co-infection in Kwande region of Benue state in Nigeria using econometrics time series techniques. Place and Duration of Study: The study is conducted in Kwande-Nigeria and utilizes monthly data of serologically confirmed cases of HIV and Tuberculosis infections from patients attending General hospital Adikpo in Kwande region from January 2007 to December 2016. Methodology: The study employs Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root test, simple correlation and regression analysis, Engle-Granger cointegration test, error correction model (ECM) as well as pairwise Granger causality test as methods of analysis. Results: Results showed that the series are integrated of order one, HIV and TB are found to be strongly and significantly positively correlated. HIV is found to have long lasting, positive and significant impact on TB and every HIV patient in the study area is found to have equal chance of developing TB. The study found a long-run stable relationship between HIV and TB. HIV is also found to Granger caused TB in the study area. Conclusion: The study recommends policies that would improve health promotion and education of the people, health awareness campaign of the public on HIV and TB be implemented in the study area and beyond, also the importance of HIV and TB screening prior to marriage contracts should be emphasized.