Forecasting the Future Farm Size in Grasscutter Production in Osun State, Nigeria: A Markov Chain Approach

Abstract

Aim: The study investigated the prospects of increasing Grasscutter production and projecting the future farm size of its production in the study area. Specifically described socio-economi characteristics and some management practices of the respondents, assessed and predicted the pattern of change and the equilibrium farm size of the Grasscutter enterprise in the study area, examined the costs and returns to grasscutter production and examined the relationships between gross margin and some selected socio-economic characteristics. Study Design: A simple random sampling technique was employed in selecting 60% of the total population of registered grasscutter farmers. Place and Duration of Study: The study was carried out in Osun State, Nigeria between years 2016 and 2017. Methodology: Primary data were collected through a well-structured questionnaire administration from the three agricultural zones in the State. Twenty four Grasscutter farmers each were randomly selected from each of the agricultural zones. Data were collected on demographics of grasscutter farmers, production activities in terms of inputs, outputs and their respective prices for the years 2016 and 2017. Data were analyzed through Descriptive statistics, Markov chain, Gross margin and Pearson r test of correlation. Results: The study revealed that male respondents (85%) dominated Grasscutter production in the study area while the mean age of respondents was 43 years. Majority (97%) of the respondents had formal education with an average grassutter farming experience of 11 years while the mean flock size was 2.5 colonies. The gross margin results showed that grasscutter production had a profit margin of ₦11,333.33/respondent/month. The mean grasscutter farm size revealed an upward trend in farm size until the year 2025 and thereafter stabilizes at about 3.3 colonies of grasscutter farm size.  The correlation analysis showed significant relationship between gross margin and level of education and farming experience with r-values of 0.817 and 0.697 respectively.  Conclusion: Grasscutter production, though in small scale, is profitable in the study area and the grasscutter farmers in the study area have great potential to boost local production