A Multi-scenario Analysis on Techno-economic Assessment of Groundnut Shell Gasification for Decentralised Power Generation in Senegal

Abstract

Senegal’s rural electrification rate remains below 55%, with off-grid communities heavily dependent on diesel generation at costs of 190–220 FCFA/kWh. Groundnut shell, a lignocellulosic agricultural residue available at an estimated 700,000–900,000 tonnes annually across Senegal’s groundnut basin, represents a viable feedstock for decentralised gasification-based power generation. The primary objective of this study is to present a multi-scenario analysis of the first country-specific techno-economic assessment of a 500 kWₑ downdraft gasification system fuelled by groundnut shell for off-grid rural electrification in Senegal. The methodology involves a multi-scenario techno-economic modelling approach evaluating three development scenarios: conservative (S1), base case (S2), and optimistic (S3), which differ in capacity factor, feedstock cost, and electricity tariff. Technical performance parameters, feedstock characterisation data, and plant cost estimates were derived from literature proxies for analogous systems in comparable Sub-Saharan African contexts. The results indicate a levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) ranging from 98 to 142 FCFA/kWh, a net present value (NPV) of 48 to 187 million FCFA, and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 14.2% to 22.8% across scenarios, with a discounted payback period of 4.2 to 7.8 years. The sensitivity analysis confirms that feedstock cost is the dominant financial driver, with a ±30% variation inducing a ±18% change in IRR. The scientific contribution of this study lies in providing the first robust financial model for groundnut shell gasification tailored to the Senegalese context. Practically, at the base case LCOE of 112 FCFA/kWh, the technology demonstrates a decisive cost advantage over diesel generation, offering strong policy implications for its deployment under PERACCU-aligned rural electrification programmes and potential carbon credit monetisation under voluntary carbon market frameworks.