Strategıc Transformatıon ın Land Use: The Declıne of Fallow Lands and Agrıcultural Intensıfıcatıon

Abstract

This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the strategic transformation in agricultural land use in Turkey, focusing on the rapid decline of traditional fallow practice between 2015 and 2024. Utilizing official data from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), the research quantifies a dramatic nationwide reduction of 35.5% in fallow area, from 41.1 million to 26.6 million decares. Spatial analysis at the NUTS-1 level reveals that this decline is markedly non-uniform, being concentrated in the arid and semi-arid interior regions where fallow is most critical for risk management. The most pronounced regional contraction occurred in Eastern Anatolia (TRB), with a decline of 30.9%, followed by significant losses in Central Anatolia (TR7). The investigation further identifies the primary land-use shifts driving this transformation. The analysis demonstrates that abandoned fallow lands are predominantly being converted to continuous cereal cultivation, indicating an intensification of the traditional crop rotation system, and to a lesser extent, to irrigated perennial crops such as orchards. While this shift signifies a move towards agricultural intensification with potential short-term gains in land productivity and output, the study critically examines its sustainability trade-offs. The concurrent expansion of water-intensive agriculture and the loss of a vital soil moisture-replenishment mechanism create a "dual threat," exacerbating pressures on already over-exploited groundwater resources and increasing risks of soil organic matter depletion, erosion, and long-term degradation. Concluding that the unchecked continuation of this trend poses significant risks to the resilience of Turkey's agricultural systems, particularly under climate change scenarios, the study advocates for an urgent policy reorientation. It recommends an integrated strategy based on: (1) promoting "smart fallow" systems using cover crops, (2) facilitating a transition to conservation agriculture principles, (3) accelerating the dissemination of drought-resistant crop varieties, and (4) implementing strict, basin-based water management alongside advanced irrigation technologies. The findings underscore that managing this land-use transformation is imperative for balancing productivity goals with the ecological limits of water and soil resources to ensure long-term food security and agricultural sustainability. This study's originality lies in its detailed, spatially explicit analysis of a critical yet understudied transition within Turkish agriculture.