Temperature Variation in Kerala: Present and Future

Abstract

Temperature is changing worldwide and a warming trend is expected in most parts. This study investigates the long-term (1983-2020) trend analysis of the maximum temperature in Kerala and the future trend in maximum temperature. The future temperature has been downloaded from GFDL-CM3, which is most suited for Kerala conditions was used to assess the future climate change under different representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The Mann-Kendall test was also used for trends analysis for the downloaded data for each RCPs. The baseline (1980 – 2020) temperature was compared with future (2021-2050 and 2051-2080) simulations for the 14 districts of Kerala under different RCPs. An increasing trend of maximum temperature was observed in all districts of Kerala during the period of 1980 -2020. The increasing temperature trend was confirmed by Mann- Kendall test at a 0.01 significant level. The warming is expected to increase in future simulations under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In the high-range zone, a decrease in temperature is expected during the beginning of the mid-century, but it continues to show an increasing trend in the projected climate. Under RCP 4.5 in most districts, an increase in temperature by 0.03ºC per year is expected in the future. While under RCP 8.5 the temperature is expected to increase by 0.05ºC per year and 0.06ºC per year by mid and end century respectively.