Basmati Rice Exports from INDIA: Towards Global Food Security

Abstract

Around 80 percent of the basmati rice produced in India is exported, accomplishing the position of largest exporter. Under this perspective, the study aimed at the estimation of crucial turning points in the export volume of Basmati rice and evaluating the growth and instability in its export during the period of 1980-81 to 2021-22 in the global market. Structural breaks during the study period were computed endogenously using Bai-perrons test to reveal the impact of any policy or economic intervention. The growth and instability have been evaluated for different periods attained from the structural break analysis during the study period. Bai perrons test revealed three significant structural breaks for volume of basmati rice exports dividing the time period into four periods viz I (1980-81 to 2004-05), II (2005-06 to 2010-11), III (2011-12 to 2016-17) and IV (2017-18 to 2021-22). The compound annual growth rate calculated for volume of basmati rice exports varied from -0.06 percent to 17.98 per cent per annum for different periods. This could be seen as the consequence of the liberalization policies adopted in early 1990s. Instability computed employing Cuddy De Valle index was also reported higher with a value of 38.97. This instability could be the result from the volatile changes in exchange rate. Instability was revealed to suffer a downfall during the subsequent subperiods from 35.97 to 3.4 in the third subperiod. The growth rate and instability were reported statistically non-significant during the last subperiod. Since, Basmati rice is strategic export commodity from India, policy interventions for reducing the variability in its exports is recommended to ensure regular supply in the global market.