Towards Decarbonized Rural Electrification: Viability of a Renewable Hybrid Microgrid in Ibiaku Ikot Oku, Nigeria

Abstract

Access to reliable electricity remains a persistent challenge in rural Nigeria and much of sub-Saharan Africa, where decentralised hybrid microgrids are increasingly proposed as alternatives to diesel-dominant systems. However, many existing Nigerian studies rely on generic or assumed load profiles, limited transparency in economic assumptions, and insufficient sensitivity analyses, thereby constraining comparability, policy translation, and replicability across regions. This study addresses these gaps by developing a transparent, data-driven techno-economic optimisation framework using appliance-level demand modelling and localised meteorological inputs for a representative off-grid community in southern Nigeria. Hourly simulations were conducted in HOMER Pro to optimise photovoltaic (PV), wind, battery storage, and diesel configurations over a 25-year horizon, to minimise Net Present Cost (NPC) and Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) under operational and environmental constraints. The optimal PV–Wind–Diesel–Battery configuration achieved an NPC of US$1.06 million, an LCOE of US$0.197/kWh, and a renewable fraction of 78.2%, reducing annual CO₂ emissions by 45.7% compared to a diesel-only baseline. Sensitivity analysis revealed that fuel price volatility and battery cost trajectories are the dominant economic risk drivers. Beyond the specific case study, the results demonstrate that hybrid microgrids in high-solar, moderate-wind regions of sub-Saharan Africa can achieve cost parity with diesel generation while substantially reducing emissions and fuel dependence. The derived LCOE benchmark provides an evidence-based reference for tariff setting under Nigeria’s Electricity Act (2023), while concessional financing, blended capital structures, and carbon credit monetisation are identified as key enablers of deployment. The methodological transparency and sensitivity-based risk assessment presented herein offer a replicable framework for scaling decentralised renewable microgrids across comparable rural contexts.