Understanding Secondary School Dropout in Baucau Municipality, Timor-Leste: A Mixed Methods Ecological Analysis of Multilevel Determinants

Abstract

School dropout is a challenge and a complex issue in post-independence and resource-strained education systems like Timor-Leste. In this research, the convergent mixed-method design was used to understand the factors related to secondary school dropout in the Baucau municipality, where quantitative data of 75 students and qualitative data of 15 dropout students were collected. Quantitative data analysis results of the descriptive statistics and bivariate statistics have shown that peer and community influences and institutional support showed patterns related to dropout, but the relationships surveyed were not statistically significant, nor were the school-related factors. Nevertheless, the qualitative results can offer an explanatory richness, which can reveal how economic deprivation, family dysfunction, social pressure, and a less supportive system influence the decision to leave school. These insights can explain the non-significant quantitative findings, suggesting that the school-level effects are indirect and situational rather than through direct statistical correlations. The dropout issue is viewed as an ecologically shaped process, and it is necessary to implement multi-level interventions, such as community support programs, family engagement initiatives, and targeted academic assistance, to enhance student retention outcomes.