Estimation of Air Temperature and Rainfall Trends in Egypt

Abstract

This paper aims at estimating the trend of climate change and examining its effect on agriculture in Egypt. The study focused on the changes in air temperature and rainfall. The monthly time series data was obtained from the World Bank Group Climate Change Knowledge Portal on temperature and rainfall for the period of 1991-2015. Time series and regression analysis were applied for data analysis. Seasonal variations in air temperature and rainfall through the study period were examined. The study relied on the previous research and personal interviews with some experts in the field to know the effect of climate change on agriculture in Egypt. Results showed fluctuations and an increase in the air temperature for all the twelve months of the study period. Seasonal variations and a decline in the rainfall were found particularly in the month of June. The future effect of these changes on the Egyptian agriculture was presented in this study. Also, adaptation and mitigation practices to climate change were described. The role of agricultural extension and the need for effective extension services to reduce the effects of this phenomenon on agriculture in Egypt was emphasized.