Application of Sarima Models in Modelling and Forecasting Monthly Rainfall in Nigeria

Abstract

Application of SARIMA model in modelling and forecasting monthly rainfall in Nigeria was considered in this study. The study utilizes the Nigerian monthly rainfall data between 1980-2015 obtained from World Bank Climate Portal. The Box-Jenkin’s methodology was adopted.  SARIMA (2,0,1) (2,1,1) [12] was the best model among others that fit the Nigerian rainfall data (1980-2015) with maximum p-value from Box-Pierce Residuals Test. The study forecasts Nigeria’s monthly rainfall from 2018 through 2042. It was discovered that the month of April is the period of onset of rainfall in Nigeria and November is the period of retreat. Based on the findings, Nigeria will experience approximately equal amount of rainfall between 2018 to 2021 and will experience a slight increase in rainfall amount in 2022 to about 1137.078 (mm). There will be a decline of rainfall at 2023 to about 1061 (mm). Rainfall values will raise again to about 1142.756 (mm) in 2024 and continue to fluctuate with decrease in variation between 2024 to 2042, then remain steady to 2046 at approximately 1110.0 (mm). Nigerian Government should provide a more mechanized and drier season farming methods to ease the outage of rainfall in future that may be caused due to natural (or unpredictable) variation.