Petroleum Products Pricing and Price Stability in Nigeria: An ARDL Investigation

Abstract

This study employed the Autoregressive Distributed lag (ARDL) technique to investigate the effect of petroleum products pricing on price level in Nigeria over the period 1990 – 2022. In order to achieve the purpose of the study, data on inflation rate, price of premium motor spirit, price of automotive gas oil, price of household kerosene, price of compressed natural gas and price of crude oil were sourced from secondary source.  The results of our analysis revealed that: in the long run, prices of Premium motor spirit and compressed natural gas retarded inflation level marginally while prices of automotive gas oil, dual purpose kerosene and crude oil spurred general price level marginally. Prices of premium motor spirit and compressed natural gas fueled inflation in the short run significantly while prices of automotive gas oil and crude retarded general price level. Price of dual-purpose kerosene had mixed but significant effect on price level. The study also found that a long run nexus existed between petroleum product prices and price level in Nigeria. Petroleum product prices had serious implications on the Nigeria’s economy in the short run than long run. Based on this conclusion, the study recommended Increase investment in the downstream petroleum sector and strengthening existing policies in the oil and gas sector as possible measures towards stabilizing price level in Nigeria.