Effect of Climatic Factors on the Spread of COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Tunisia

Abstract

Since the end of December 2019, the COrona VIrus Disease (COVID-19) is sweeping the world and has caused huge damage to the health, economy, and social life of the communities. Meteorological variables are among the factors influencing the spread of contagious diseases. The aim of this study was to explore the correlation between climatic parameters and COVID-19 spread in Tunisia. To do this, we designed a daily dataset including the number of confirmed and deaths cases, minimum temperature (°C), maximum temperature (°C), mean temperature (°C), rainfall (mm), and wind speed (km/h) during the period of June 27 to October 22, 2020. To investigate the association between climatic variables and COVID-19, the Spearman correlation test was employed. The Mann-Kendall test has been also used to detect the direction of the COVID-19 trend. As many researchers have demonstrated that the incubation period of the ongoing pandemic varies from 1 to 14 days, the correlation of each parameter with COVID-19 was examined on the day of the confirmed cases and deaths, and before 7 and 14 days.  The results showed that out of the five selected climatic variables, four variables were correlated with COVID-19 cases and deaths (statistically significant at a 99% confidence level). A positive correlation of the rainfall with COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths was observed, the highest was 14 days ago. However, negative correlations were observed for minimum, maximum, and mean temperature, the highest was on the day of the incident. Besides, the Mann-Kendall test showed increasing trends for COVID-19 cases and deaths (statistically significant at a 99% confidence level). The results of this study might be useful to understand the role of climatic factors in the spread of COVID-19 and provide insights for healthcare policymakers to well manage this global pandemic.