Determinants of Supply Response and Dynamics of Sustainable Paddy Production in Agro-Ecological Unit in Kerala, India

Abstract

This study investigated the cropping pattern and supply response of paddy farmers in Agro Ecological Unit 6 in Kerala. The study was based on time series data collected from the Department of Economics and Statistics, Government of Kerala, during the period of 2013-14 to 2022-23. Various analytical tools, such as the compound annual growth rate and regression analysis, were used based on the Nerlov supply response model. The results revealed that the cropping pattern of these areas made a resurgence towards paddy farming with an increase of 2.59 percent compound growth rate in the area of cultivation. Although the area and production of paddy showed a positive growth rate, productivity exhibited a negative growth of 0.93 percent per annum. Using the Nerlove model of supply response, this study seeks to analyse the paddy acreage response of the farmers and identify the various factors influencing the supply response of paddy. The expected income from paddy farming is a highly significant (p < 0.01) determinant of paddy cultivation, with a regression coefficient of 0.035. The expected income from arecanut and excessive rainfall negatively affects paddy cultivation. Although excessive and untimely rainfall is a constraint, the main factor that motivates farmers to cultivate paddy is the hope of making a steady profit from rice farming. The overall fit of the model was significant, with an R-squared value of 0.905.