Long-Term Dynamics of Human–Wildlife Conflict Around Nairobi National Park, Kenya

Abstract

Human–wildlife conflict (HWC) has become an increasing global conservation challenge driven by rapid population growth, urbanization, and habitat fragmentation, which have intensified interactions between wildlife and human communities. Around Nairobi National Park, expanding settlements, land-use change, and blockage of wildlife corridors have significantly increased incidents of livestock predation, crop destruction, and property damage, threatening both biodiversity conservation and local livelihoods. This study investigates long-term trends in human–wildlife conflict (HWC) around Nairobi National Park over a 30-year period (1995–2025), with a focus on identifying temporal patterns, spatial distribution, and the key ecological and socio-economic drivers of conflict. A longitudinal research design was adopted, integrating secondary data from Kenya Wildlife Service records, primary household survey data (n = 210), and spatial datasets analyzed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The study applied both descriptive and inferential statistical techniques, including Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), correlation analysis, regression modeling, and spatial hotspot analysis to examine trends and relationships among variables. The findings reveal a statistically significant and consistent increase in HWC incidents over time (F = 18.42, p < 0.001), indicating a sustained upward trend in human–wildlife interactions across the study period. Regression analysis further demonstrates that land-use change is a major determinant of conflict intensity (R² = 0.60), with urban expansion, land subdivision, infrastructure development, and fencing significantly contributing to habitat fragmentation and reduced wildlife mobility. Spatial analysis identifies persistent conflict hotspots along the southern dispersal area of Nairobi National Park, particularly in rapidly urbanizing zones such as Kitengela and Ongata Rongai, where wildlife corridors have been increasingly obstructed. In addition to ecological drivers, the study highlights important socio-economic impacts, including livestock predation, crop damage, property destruction, and threats to human safety, all of which negatively affect local livelihoods and shape community attitudes toward wildlife conservation. The study also establishes a strong relationship between climate variability and conflict occurrence, with declining rainfall and rising temperatures exacerbating resource competition between humans and wildlife. The results underscore that human–wildlife conflict in the study area is structurally increasing due to combined effects of land-use change, climate variability, and human population pressure. The study concludes that effective mitigation requires integrated landscape-level planning, strengthened protection of wildlife corridors, enforcement of land-use regulations, improved compensation mechanisms, and enhanced community-based conservation strategies to promote sustainable coexistence between humans and wildlife in urban-adjacent ecosystems.