Measurement of Agricultural Resource Misallocation in China and Its Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics

Abstract

Against the backdrop of China’ s Rural Revitalization Strategy and deepening supply-side structural reforms in agriculture, the misallocation of agricultural production factors has emerged as a key constraint on high-quality agricultural development. This study constructs a comprehensive model to measure agricultural resource misallocation across capital, labor, and land inputs. Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2010 and 2023, and applying kernel density estimation, the study systematically quantifies the relative degree and spatiotemporal evolution of factor misallocation. The results reveal a systematically intensifying trend in capital misallocation, a labor misallocation trajectory characterized by “bimodal stabilization–ecological deterioration–marginal risk emergence,” and a land misallocation evolution following a “policy-driven improvement–structural rebound–regional polarization” three-stage pattern. Significant regional heterogeneity is observed: eastern China is marked by “external sensitivity and peri-urban rigidity, "central China shows a “three-phase evolution,” and western China exhibits “ecological constraint-driven polarization.” In response, the study proposes regionally adaptive, category-specific, and dynamically adjustable governance strategies, providing both theoretical insights and practical guidance for optimizing agricultural resource allocation and advancing agricultural modernization in China.