Climate Variability and Socioeconomic Vulnerability in Informal Settlement: A Comparative Analysis of Korogocho and Kahawa Soweto, Nairobi

Abstract

Climate variability increasingly threatens informal settlements globally, where poverty, inadequate infrastructure, and environmental exposure intersect. This study examines trends and impacts of climate variability on Korogocho and Kahawa Soweto informal settlements in Nairobi, Kenya, from 1995 to 2025. Using a mixed-methods approach that combines secondary climate data, household surveys, and vulnerability indicators, the study analyzed temperature trends, rainfall variability, flooding frequency, and drought occurrence, and their implications for housing, water access, health, and livelihoods. Results indicate a significant warming trend of approximately 0.6 oC over 25 years, a weak upward rainfall tendency, and increasing frequency of extreme heat events, short-rains flooding, and prolonged dry spells. Korogocho exhibits higher vulnerability to flooding and sanitation risks due to proximity to riparian zones and poor drainage, whereas Kahawa Soweto faces heightened heat stress and water insecurity linked to densification and limited green cover. The findings highlight that even modest rainfall increases, combined with urban warming and impervious surfaces, amplify flood risks in infrastructure-limited settlements. This study contributes evidence-based insights for climate-responsive urban planning and tailored community adaptation strategies in high-risk informal settlements. The study demonstrates how localized climate trends intersect with settlement-specific vulnerabilities to shape health, livelihood, and infrastructure outcomes. Findings provide actionable insights for climate-responsive urban planning and tailored community adaptation strategies in informal settlements facing compounded environmental and socio-economic hazards. Climate variability increasingly threatens informal settlements, where poverty, inadequate infrastructure, and environmental exposure intersect; this study examines Korogocho and Kahawa Soweto in Nairobi, Kenya, from 1995 to 2025 using a mixed-methods approach and regression-based mediation analysis. Results show a 0.6 oC warming trend, weakly increasing rainfall, and rising frequency of extreme heat, floods, and droughts, with Korogocho more vulnerable to flooding and sanitation risks and Kahawa Soweto facing higher heat stress and water insecurity, highlighting the mediating role of socio-economic factors. Findings underscore the need for policy prioritizing climate-resilient infrastructure, improved water and housing systems, and community-centered adaptation strategies to reduce exposure and strengthen resilience.