Evaluation of CERES –Rice Model for Simulating Rice Yield and Phenophases

Abstract

In this study, the performance of the CERES-Rice model in simulating the growth and yield of the Rajeshwari variety in the Raipur district of Chhattisgarh, India, was evaluated. Utilizing observed data from 2021 and 2022, the model was calibrated and validated using key parameters such as days to anthesis, physiological maturity, and yield. Calibration involved adjusting genetic coefficients to improve simulation accuracy, with validation ensuring the model's reliability beyond the calibration period. The comparison between observed and simulated data for crop performance parameters showed that the model performed reasonably well. For days to Anthesis, the RMSE was 4.32 with a d-stat of 0.59, and an error of 5.4%. For Days to Panicle initiation, the RMSE was 1.83, the d-stat was 0.82, and the error was -4.7%. For days to PM, the RMSE was 6.7, the d-stat was 0.65, and the error was 3.0%. Yield showed an RMSE of 472.4, a d-stat of 0.81, and an error of 7.7%. F The mean simulated values closely matched the observed means, indicating overall good model accuracy. In this study, fine tuning the genetic coefficients of CERES rice model for the variety Rjeshwari was done and can be used for further studies and applications.