Growth and Variability in Area, Production and Productivity of Major Cereal Crops in Rajasthan, India

Abstract

Cereal crops are staple foods and play an important role in ensuring food and nutritional security. The present study was undertaken to examine growth and instability in the area, production and productivity of major cereal crops, namely sorghum, pearl millet, maize, wheat and barley, in Rajasthan. The study was based on secondary data collected from official sources over a 20-year period from 2005–06 to 2024–25. The study period was divided into Period-I (2005–06 to 2013–14), Period-II (2014–15 to 2024–25) and the overall period. Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) was used to examine growth, while the Cuddy-Della Valle Index (CDVI) was employed to measure instability. The results revealed that the area under sorghum, pearl millet and maize declined non-significantly during the overall period, whereas their production and productivity increased significantly. Sorghum recorded significant growth in production (3.84%) and productivity (2.22%), while pearl millet recorded growth of 1.87 per cent in production and 3.08 per cent in productivity. Maize showed significant growth of 2.62 per cent in production and 3.33 per cent in productivity. During the overall period (2005–06 to 2024–25), wheat recorded positive but non-significant growth in area, production and productivity at 1.10, 0.32 and 1.69 per cent per annum, respectively, whereas barley recorded significant growth in production (3.02%) and productivity (2.22%). The instability analysis revealed that sorghum recorded the highest variability in production (25.85%) and productivity (22.23%), while wheat emerged as the most stable crop with the lowest variability in production (7.56%) and productivity (6.19%). Overall, the findings indicated that improvements in productivity played an important role in increasing cereal production in Rajasthan despite limited or declining cultivated area.