Trade Dynamics and Market Retention among Major Rice Exporting Countries: A Pre- and Post-Recession Markov Analysis with Special Reference to India

Abstract

This study analyses changes in global rice-export patterns and market retention before and after the 2008–09 recession, with particular reference to India. Secondary data for 2000–2020 were examined for six major rice-exporting countries and India’s principal destination markets. A first-order Markov transition probability matrix was used to estimate market-retention and transfer probabilities, while a linear regression model assessed the association of rice exports with the international–domestic price differential, domestic consumption, lagged production, and the real exchange rate. During the pre-recession period, Thailand recorded the largest average export share and the highest retention probability among the major exporters. During the post-recession period, India recorded the largest average export share, whereas China had the highest estimated retention probability. India’s retention probability increased substantially between the two periods. Among India’s destination markets, the United Arab Emirates was the most stable before the recession, while Saudi Arabia had the highest retention probability after the recession. For the full study period, the international–domestic price differential and domestic consumption were positively and significantly associated with India’s rice exports, whereas lagged production and the real exchange rate were not statistically significant. The findings indicate that export share and estimated market retention followed different patterns and should not be interpreted interchangeably. They also suggest that stable market relationships, price conditions, supply efficiency, and destination diversification are relevant to sustaining India’s rice-export performance.