An Empirical Analysis of Growth and Decomposition of Gram in Madhya Pradesh, India (2002-03 to 2021-22)

Abstract

Gram (chickpea) is a major pulse crop contributing significantly to nutritional security and agricultural sustainability in India, particularly in Madhya Pradesh, the leading producer state. This study examines the growth performance and structural dynamics of gram cultivation in Madhya Pradesh over a 20-year period from 2002–03 to 2021–22. Using secondary data from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Government of India, the analysis employs compound growth rate, decomposition analysis (Minhas and Vaidyantha model, 1965), and instability measures (Cuddy-Della Valle Index). The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of area was negative (–0.45%), whereas production (3.25%) and productivity (3.71%) recorded positive growth. Variability analysis showed relatively stable area but higher fluctuations in production and yield. Decomposition analysis further highlights that area expansion was the dominant factor influencing production growth, while the contribution of yield effect was negative during the study period. The findings suggest that technological advancements, improved seed varieties, and better crop management practices have played a crucial role in enhancing gram productivity. However, the observed variability underscores the need for policy interventions focusing on irrigation, risk mitigation, and climate-resilient technologies to ensure sustainable growth in gram production.